Main Stages Involved In Capacity Management Tourism Essay

Main Stages Involved In Capacity Management Tourism evidenceCapacity precaution in the touristry industry is noticed by the available seat-miles per month. Capacity worry is an important factor within hospitality operations as it tests activity for the manager and in that respectfore bring ins them an indication of the supreme level of value-added everyplace a period of conviction, so they nooky propose what the operation could achieve in normal conditions. fit in to Armistead and Clark (1994, p6) Capacity management is the ability to balance crave from customers and the capability of the service delivery clay to satisfy the demand. This places an emphasis on understanding first, the nature of demand by thinking and second, the options for managing force to meet the expected demand.The process consists of forecasting and managing substance, these are made up from sm every last(predicate)er components which will be discussed in foster details in this report.2. proph ecyForecasting is use to identify potentiality gaps between product demand and the live capacitor. It is an important process in all management determinations not just tourism management although severally situation is different you can apply the same procedures to possess hardheaded message decisions within some(prenominal) business. Forecasting methods can be divided into qualitative and quantitative categories which are based on the availability of historical prison term serial entropy.Establishing the level of demand when forecasting is of the upmost magnificence as failure to do so can drift over booking and overcrowding. Other eventualities from inaccuracy of forecasting can allow incorrect rime for staff and lack aircrafts which was one of the factors which effected American respiratory tracts development in 1990 (Krajewski and Ritzman, p275) . It helps to understand product life cycle as it will confrontation the capacity.It is also important for a mana ger to look at international factors such as trends as they will have an effect on the supply and demand of a product or service, these can includeAgeing population- this will affect the quantitative forecasting as our current population is living longer, so you cant use historical data to establish relationships as its continuously changing.Seasonal trends- They can depend social, scotch and environmental impacts. This would be best measure by qualitative forecasting. liquid income- Due to the recession people will have less fluid income.2.1 Forecasting TechniquesThere are various different forecasting techniques that enshroud various timescales, the two most common techniques areLong-term capacity managementFor large projectsUsually planned over several geezerhoodIn tourism this will involve several departmentsShort-term capacity managementPlan and order resourcesUsually a monthly, weekly or daily basisTourism short term capacity management would involve the cleaning of an ai rcraftLong term planning requires demand forecasts for an panoptic period of time, the decisions made are often concerned with strategic decisions to figure achievement of their desired objectives.Short-term capacity management focuses on relatively small time durations and specific processes they are specifically for smaller levels of operation. Unfortunately, forecast accuracy declines as the forecasting time lengthens. Forecasts also dont allow for competitors actions stock-still defermenting line models and decision trees do.3. Types of forecastingForecasting methods can be divided into two broad approaches, these areQualitative numericThe volume of forecasting techniques use departed or historical data in the form of time serial. One single method is never employ on its own as they are both usually interlinked.3.1Qualitative ForecastingThe Qualitative method generally uses the judgment of experts in the appropriate electron orbit to generate forecasts. An advantage of this is that experts can generate a forecast if at that place isnt any historical data available. The main challenge to qualitative data digest is that there is no clear and accepted set of conventions for analysis corresponding to those observed with quantitative data (Robson, 1993, p.370).The most popular methods of qualitative forecasting areDelphi techniqueScenario writingSubject approach able opinionLife cycle analysis3.2 Quantitative forecastingThe Quantitative methods use historical data the methods consist of analyzing historical data concerning the time series of the particular variable of interest and other time series if they interlink with the area concerned. There are two main methods employ within quantitative forecasting, the first method bases the future forecast on a past trends, these are known as time series methods.The second method also uses historical data. But the forecaster examines the cause and effect relationships of the variable with other relevant va riables such as expendable incomeInterest rateUnemployment rateThe state of the economy e.g. the recessionThis caseful of forecasting uses past time series, forecasting techniques that are under this kinfolk are called casual methods.4. Capacity managementAfter deciding what products and run should be on offered, management should then plan the systems capacity. The first graduation in the Capacity Management process, forecasting, is the best way to judge attention and understand product life cycle. Therefore Capacity Management itself is used to make sure the capacity, from a tourism managers point of view, meets the tar rides set.The capacity of an airline usually depends on the location and the available seats per miles, as soundly as staff, time and other resources which are used.4.1 Measuring CapacityAccording to (Krajewski and Ritzman, p276) No single capacity measure is applicable to all types of situations every(prenominal) manager will have to take other factors into consideration originally they measure their capacity. If there is an meagerly capacity it wont be viable to meet all of the demand, therefore to much capacity is provided and this will guide in resources not being used to their maximum capability.4.2 Coping with involveThe need for accurate forecasts of tourism demand to assist managerial decision making is highly important as the tourism product is destructible and if it doesnt meet the demand they lose revenue as an aircraft still has to aviate without the demand being met. There are several ways of lintel with demand and these areKeep the activities level of resources constant and ignore any fluctuations.Adjust capacity to match demand.Change the demand to fit the capacity.4.3 Queuing suppositionQueuing theory is important to an as its one of the important factors in meeting their attendees needs. Queues arise when a demand for a service has exceeded the capacity, the customer doesnt get the service straight away upon a rrival so they must wait for the service to be ready. This is an important for an airport as they have a random system which customers can arrive at any time it isnt difficult for an airport to experience queues, but it is important that they deal with them sufficiently. These queues will often build up, disappear in quieter periods and then reappear all the time as there are always flights departing and arriving. Airports offer departing guests hold rooms and shops to deal with queues and when they arrive they must go through usance which is a slow but easy method for managing the mass pith of people.4.4 Queue DisciplineMost managers will employ a undecomposable queuing method to ensure a positive experience for the customer. These can bePriority system for certain customersFIFO first gear In First OutLIFO Last In First Out5. shutdownThis report has looked at the three main stages involved in capacity management and the different methods available to any manager. Although f orecasting isnt always accurate, there is a wide variety of techniques in the first stage which can be used for any method. It is highly important to consider past experience as well as modern trends for more of a refined forecast, failure to do so could lead into an inaccurate forecast. The capacity management stage can then deal with the demand if it is insufficient or too high, then the queuing theory may be taken into consideration.In an airport due to the nature of the business it is unpredictable to measure the amount of customers as people can come and go as they please. This means the queuing theory may or may not make the service time, however if the demand has been manipulated to help predict the expected demand then it will reduce the waiting time and overall give the customer a positive experience. All of the stages combined prepare a tourism manager for any unforeseen outcomes in a tourism service and will allow them to successfully manage any outcome.